Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 132,577
2 South Dakota 129,596
3 Rhode Island 124,119
4 Utah 118,092
5 Arizona 114,496
6 Tennessee 114,035
7 Oklahoma 109,374
8 Iowa 108,809
9 Arkansas 108,376
10 Wisconsin 107,495
11 Nebraska 106,203
12 South Carolina 103,751
13 Alabama 103,652
14 Kansas 103,364
15 Mississippi 101,097
16 Indiana 100,447
17 Idaho 98,359
18 Nevada 97,245
19 Illinois 95,784
20 Wyoming 95,595
21 Montana 95,487
22 Georgia 95,079
23 New Jersey 94,666
24 Texas 94,232
25 Louisiana 94,124
26 Kentucky 94,010
27 Missouri 93,679
28 Delaware 93,055
29 Florida 92,171
30 California 91,764
31 New York 89,893
32 New Mexico 89,891
33 Minnesota 88,354
34 Massachusetts 87,553
35 North Carolina 84,925
36 Ohio 84,723
37 Alaska 82,256
38 Connecticut 82,209
39 Colorado 77,591
40 Pennsylvania 75,986
41 West Virginia 75,706
42 Virginia 69,810
43 Michigan 67,454
44 Maryland 65,210
45 District of Columbia 60,393
46 New Hampshire 57,963
47 Washington 46,394
48 Puerto Rico 42,842
49 Oregon 37,904
50 Maine 35,112
51 Vermont 27,231
52 Hawaii 19,996

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Alabama 375
2 New Jersey 375
3 New York 339
4 Rhode Island 309
5 Delaware 240
6 Connecticut 236
7 Massachusetts 222
8 South Carolina 214
9 Vermont 197
10 Michigan 195
11 Florida 182
12 New Hampshire 181
13 Minnesota 177
14 Alaska 172
15 Colorado 172
16 District of Columbia 161
17 Pennsylvania 160
18 Tennessee 155
19 West Virginia 155
20 Maryland 142
21 Virginia 142
22 Maine 136
23 Idaho 131
24 North Carolina 124
25 Nebraska 123
26 Oklahoma 120
27 Texas 118
28 Montana 116
29 Utah 115
30 South Dakota 113
31 Mississippi 111
32 Kentucky 109
33 Illinois 103
34 Ohio 102
35 Iowa 101
36 Indiana 96
37 Wyoming 94
38 Georgia 93
39 Nevada 87
40 Washington 81
41 New Mexico 80
42 Wisconsin 79
43 Louisiana 77
44 California 75
45 Arizona 71
46 North Dakota 67
47 Puerto Rico 67
48 Missouri 65
49 Arkansas 61
50 Oregon 58
51 Kansas 49
52 Hawaii 36

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,693
2 New York 2,495
3 Rhode Island 2,431
4 Massachusetts 2,419
5 Mississippi 2,319
6 Arizona 2,274
7 Connecticut 2,184
8 South Dakota 2,161
9 Louisiana 2,130
10 Alabama 2,106
11 North Dakota 1,952
12 Pennsylvania 1,923
13 Indiana 1,910
14 New Mexico 1,838
15 Illinois 1,832
16 Arkansas 1,816
17 Iowa 1,788
18 South Carolina 1,724
19 Tennessee 1,689
20 Michigan 1,679
21 Georgia 1,668
22 Nevada 1,662
23 Kansas 1,659
24 Texas 1,610
25 Delaware 1,551
26 Ohio 1,528
27 Florida 1,506
28 District of Columbia 1,476
29 California 1,432
30 Missouri 1,429
31 West Virginia 1,412
32 Maryland 1,332
33 Montana 1,304
34 Wisconsin 1,232
35 Minnesota 1,208
36 Wyoming 1,193
37 Oklahoma 1,188
38 Virginia 1,178
39 Nebraska 1,155
40 Kentucky 1,152
41 North Carolina 1,119
42 Idaho 1,073
43 Colorado 1,062
44 New Hampshire 881
45 Washington 681
46 Puerto Rico 651
47 Utah 632
48 Oregon 553
49 Maine 539
50 Alaska 399
51 Vermont 342
52 Hawaii 316

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 California 10
2 Delaware 5
3 Arkansas 4
4 Kentucky 4
5 Massachusetts 4
6 New York 4
7 Florida 3
8 Louisiana 3
9 Texas 3
10 Virginia 3
11 West Virginia 3
12 Alabama 2
13 Connecticut 2
14 Georgia 2
15 Mississippi 2
16 Nevada 2
17 New Jersey 2
18 Rhode Island 2
19 South Carolina 2
20 Arizona 1
21 District of Columbia 1
22 Idaho 1
23 Illinois 1
24 Indiana 1
25 Iowa 1
26 Kansas 1
27 Maryland 1
28 Michigan 1
29 Missouri 1
30 North Carolina 1
31 Pennsylvania 1
32 South Dakota 1
33 Utah 1
34 Vermont 1
35 Alaska 0
36 Colorado 0
37 Hawaii 0
38 Maine 0
39 Minnesota 0
40 Montana 0
41 Nebraska 0
42 New Hampshire 0
43 New Mexico 0
44 North Dakota 0
45 Ohio 0
46 Oklahoma 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 Tennessee 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 346,807 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 303,291 2 99
Bent Colorado 265,914 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 243,397 4 99
Dewey South Dakota 243,381 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 132,608 219 93
Richland South Carolina 102,523 1060 66
York South Carolina 98,360 1253 60
Orange California 83,130 1971 37
Pierce Washington 44,237 2906 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Galax city Virginia 7,878 3 99
Foard Texas 7,792 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,669 5 99
Orange California 1,413 1809 42
Davidson Tennessee 1,256 2004 36
Richland South Carolina 1,241 2025 35
York South Carolina 1,214 2068 34
Pierce Washington 648 2707 13

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons